Organised Chaos?
Is there a plan behind all this?
I have got to hand it to Trump. Love him or loathe him he’s certainly entertaining. There’s something about the way he communicates. Normally I’m not too impressed when a politician says or does things I totally disagree with.
But it’s different with Trump. Often I’ve started laughing. And it’s not laughing in a mocking or condescending way. Rather, it’s the surreal and off-script way he talks about things. Perhaps we’ve been so used to political spin the last few years that to hear someone at least seeming to talk honestly makes a refreshing change. Even when the content is terrible.
TACO
And indeed, some of the things that Trump has said recently are pretty shocking. A couple of weeks ago he threatened Iran when he said “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” Admittedly, there was nothing but horror in the statement. But even then, it came across more as drama than reality.
That’s because many expected this was yet another empty threat aimed at an internal audience to show strength. And low and behold the next day there was a ceasefire announcement where both sides claimed success.
And the reason this was so predictable can be found in an expression that’s going around called TACO. I didn’t know what this acronym stood for so I looked it up. It stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. And there are many examples of this, like this crisis, Greenland and his tariff war. And now we’ve just found out that Trump will extend the ceasefire.
Chaos
Personally, I don’t see this so much as a sign of Trump being a wimp, but, rather, not carrying out a crazy threat. It’s almost like a business person playing hardball.
But when we look at how this Iran conflict has gone back and forth like a pendulum, there certainly doesn’t seem to be a clear plan. Every day Trump says contradictory things. One moment we’re meant to be winning the war easily. The next moment there is some dramatic, unhinged threat.
Often this is followed by a peace announcement that the Iranians know nothing about, which certainly helps the markets. Perhaps this has been a big part of Trump’s plan all along.
But it doesn’t change the fact that rather than the quick success Trump and Netanyahu promised in a few hours, we have a disorganised mess that just keeps going on and on and threatens the world economy.
Now we’re starting to hear about how this war was never really about Iran, but China. It’s the threat of the petrodollar and US hegemony in what’s becoming a multi-polar world (I say ‘becoming’ because it appears the US is fighting pretty hard to prevent this).
But if it is just about China, Team Trump’s decisions have looked very indecisive. For example, when the Strait of Hormuz was closed, the price of oil started to skyrocket. America at first seemed very concerned about this so they froze the sanctions on Russian oil so that there’d be enough supply. But then, perhaps in panic at how well the BRICS countries appeared to be doing, they reimposed them again. But now that we’re back at square one and the oil prices are about to surge, they’ve frozen them again. It’s almost like musical chairs!
What’s next?
Now Trump has extended the ceasefire after the Iranians decided it wasn’t worth their time showing up. We can hardly blame them seeing that every time they go to a negotiation they’re putting their lives on the line. But that’s an article for another day.
It does appear to me that Trump doesn’t want to send in ground troops, even though he’s sent reinforcements to the region. If anything, we could see the US and Netanyahu resume missile attacks. And undoubtedly the US will continue their blockade of a blockade(that has a ring to it!). This has to be a first.
Unforeseen consequences
But there are serious risks with these tactics. Firstly, if Iran is attacked again, they will strike back. And what the American leadership doesn’t seem to understand(or perhaps care about) is that if Iran replies with an equivalent response it will be far more devastating to American allies in the region(and even Israel), than it will be for them.
For example, let’s say the US starts taking out energy facilities. Iran is a big country with a varied climate and a large amount of agriculture. It could survive this. If Iran hits the main power plant in, say, Kuwait, people will have to evacuate the country. In a hot desert region with no air conditioning, people will not be able to survive. Even more so for desalination plants.
Moreover, although the US navy boarded an Iranian ship yesterday, they’ve hardly managed to cut off China from Iranian oil, with at least 26 Iranian ships getting through since the blockade began. And since when did the world’s greatest superpower want to be seen as pirates? It’s not exactly a good look for the West.
And, although China’s success with renewables means they’re far less dependent on fossil fuels, they could very well use their navy to start escorting tankers through the blockade. It’s unlikely that the US would risk WWIII at this stage. And don’t forget that China can reinstitute the ban on rare earths that the West is so dependent on both for weapons and things like mobile phones.
But the most important thing isn’t oil but food. And that includes the US. Most American farmers already can’t afford fertilisers. Even if a deal was signed today, we’re looking at a looming recession and failing crops at best. After decades of the world being fed, we’re going in reverse.
Final thoughts
This isn’t just a Trump thing. In fact, it’s not just an American thing. It’s a Western thing. Our leadership believes strongly in the rule of law, unless of course it applies to them. Western leaders and media are happy to wring their hands at the conduct of others but not themselves. Plenty of European leaders have condemned Iran for fighting back yet have failed to condemn the attack on Iran.
I wrote before how Trump let the Venezuela success get to his head. But we now know Biden had potential plans to hit Iran too, and his rushed withdrawal from Afghanistan was a disaster. We only have to look back at recent conflicts like that or Iraq(twice), Libya, Syria or Vietnam to see that we never really thought through the consequences of what we were doing.
Both Israeli and American interests were far safer before this conflict began than they are now, and now Iran has shown they can control the Strait of Hormuz. So many people were warning this would happen, but Trump and Netanyahu were blinded by instant regime change and an easy victory, perhaps where they split the oil proceeds. Now the world teeters on the brink of disaster, though it may be averted by signing a similar deal with Iran that we had from Obama’s time(oh the irony!).
So what can we learn from this? Get to know your adversaries, not only who they are, but what they really want. And don’t be afraid to walk away. Trump can always claim victory anyway, that’s one of his strengths. And who knows, there could still be a good deal to be had by all.