Is Labour Finished Already?

One year on from their landslide victory makes miserable viewing

A tearful Chancellor Rachel Reeves, courtesy of Piers Morgan on X, https://x.com/piersmorgan/status/1940495066340249894/photo/1

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Trouble

It’s now been a year since Labour won one of the biggest landslides in British election history. Normally when a party wins so easily, the victors can be confident that they will hold the keys to power for some time. Normally they can comfortably plan on sticking around for 2 or 3 terms.

But that certainly hasn’t happened with this party. Not only has everything gone dramatically wrong, but the party couldn’t be less popular if they tried. Although I would encourage them not to try, because, bad as things may appear, they can get even worse.

So are Labour under Sir Keir Starmer already a lame duck government after just one year? Or can they turn things around and keep Nigel Farage and his surging Reform UK Party at bay?

Bad Start

Sometimes a government’s popularity is just down to old-fashioned luck. I actually thought that Labour had got some good luck right away with England’s participation in the European Championships.

Two very positive things happened. First, without playing particularly well, England managed to get to the final. I happened to be over there that week and the mood was good. Secondly, there were no football hooligan incidents that would help drag down the national mood. So far so good.

But it seems the thugs had decided to take things out at home instead. First there were the unsavoury images of a White police officer kicking an Asian guy in the head who was lying on the ground(it turned out that the victim and his brother had just assaulted someone in a café before attacking the cops).

However, the main incident was the horrible stabbing of three young girls in Southport by an angry young teenager who was alleged to be an Islamist terrorist. This sparked off a week of right-wing riots all over England(and in Northern Ireland) that shocked and divided the country. The vibes have been bad every since.

Bad decisions

Ultimately, governments are limited in what they can do. They actually deserve credit for keeping their cool during the unrest, although it certainly didn’t help them in the polls. But it is the decisions that Prime Minister Starmer’s troops have made since then that have made previously unpopular government’s, like Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, almost look competent. And that takes some doing, although no one can outdo Liz Truss’ five week reign!

The biggest problem for Labour is they look mean. Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves have come across as robotic and uncaring. They lack the sort of charm Boris Johnson had who could talk his way out of trouble until he finally hit the point of no return.

So when the government removed winter fuel credits for most pensioners, it went down like a lead balloon. Labour implied that the previous Conservative administration had hidden terrible finances that had to be put right.

The policy could have worked if it had only targeted those that could clearly afford to lose it (say 50%). But it was so clumsily implemented that only the bottom 10% or so received this £300 rebate.

If there’s one democracy in the world where pensioner power should not be ignored, it’s the UK. British pensioners come out to vote in far bigger numbers than anyone else, and not surprisingly, they’ve got a memory like an elephant, which they showed at a vengeance in May’s local elections.

At least Labour have finally realised their blunder. But the latest decision to restore this for 75% of pensioners is complete overkill the other way. As a result the government will hardly save any money. A lot of wealthier households will get bonus money they don’t need, while younger people continue to suffer.

Another disastrous decision was to try to attack society’s most vulnerable. The government decided that people receiving sickness or disabled benefits(known as PIP) would have their benefits cut, while new claimants would not be able to apply for help.

However, after the threat of a backbench rebellion, Starmer was forced into a humiliating climbdown, which led to Chancellor Rachel Reeves tears shown in the picture above. But even this reversal won’t bring back the lost trust that disadvantaged people now have in the government.

Media Disaster

One thing I’ve noticed from Day One, is just how unpopular Labour is with most of the media. That’s not surprising. Most of the media have long supported the Tories and that will never change. But Tony Blair showed that Labour can have a good relationship with the media.

He did this by reaching out to editors of both tabloids and broadsheets, and this was done long before he was elected. Starmer could learn from this.

Conclusion

Which brings me to the perfect place to conclude. Unlike when Blair was in charge, today’s Labour seem totally unprepared for government. While Blair and his spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, produced a well-oiled machine, Sir Keir Starmer’s team has kept changing their minds when they realise how disastrous their policies are.

If Starmer and Reeves are going to bring Labour back from the abyss they need to build a better relationship with the British people. They need to make it clear to the public what it is they are trying to do and how they plan to achieve it. That only works if they have a plan to begin with.

Up to now, it feels like their only plan is to blame the previous government for all of Britain’s ails. But that won’t work. Nor will right-wing gimmicks or other attempts to appeal to potential Reform voters.

Labour’s best hope is to stay in the centre ground, and gradually implement policies that appeal to progressives, like ending the child benefit cap that punishes families that have more than 2 kids.

Things look bleak, but 4 years is a lifetime in politics. And ironically, Starmer’s boring style may save him. Expectations are low, yet they have the power to make big decisions.

Reform UK on the other hand, as a new party, have plenty of problems of their own. Nigel Farage’s team have had to find hundreds of candidates and many of them have turned out to be either extremists or incompetent. As time goes on, the pressure will increase on them.

So in 4 years Labour may very well survive. But if they don’t get their act together it will only be because their opponents have blown it.

I’d love to know what you think. Will Labour under Sir Keir turn it around, or will Farage and his pals continue their momentum?